The Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC), the trade body representing the global wind industry, has released a new report which estimates the global offshore wind sector with potential to reach 200GW installed capacity by 2030.
The GWEC’s new report, named Global Offshore Wind Report, provides a comprehensive analysis of the global offshore wind market prospects including forecast data, and market-level analysis.
GWEC market intelligence director Karin Ohlenforst said: “We are standing within reach of a truly global offshore wind industry. Based on government targets, auction results, and pipeline data we expect to see 190 GW of new capacity to be installed by 2030, but this does not represent the full potential of offshore wind.
“Many new countries are preparing to join the offshore wind revolution, while floating offshore wind represents a game-changing technological development that can add even more volumes in the years to come.”
Projections in the Global Offshore Wind Report are based on two scenarios including a business-as-usual (BAU) an upside scenario.
Although the BAU scenario does not incorporate further technical development or further opportunities for offshore wind, it predicts double-digit growth for the sector based on current policies and expected auctions and tenders.
It predicts annual installations of 15 to 20GW after 2025 based on growth in China and other Asian markets, bringing total installed capacity to nearly 190GW by 2030.
On the other hand, the upside case captures the additional potential provided by the advancement of floating technology, improved cost competitiveness and the opening up of new markets.
Under the upside case, there is potential for installing over 200GW new capacity between now and 2030, totalling approximately 210GW, according to the report.
Asia to dominate with 100GW of installed offshore wind capacity by 2030
By 2030, Europe will have a total installed capacity of 78GW under the BAU scenario, while Asia will have around 100GW capacity with major contribution from China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Japan, India and South Koreathe.
Additionally, the US will increase its offshore installed capacity to 2GW by 2025, and expected to reach 10GW by 2030.
GWEC global offshore wind task force chair Alastair Dutton said: “The industry is continuing to make significant strides on cost-competitiveness, with a average LCOE of $50/MWh being within reach.
“This achievement increases the attractiveness of offshore wind in mature markets where a number of governments are discussing long-term climate targets that, if they are to be achieved, must seriously consider the contribution large-scale offshore wind can make.”
