Higher oil prices, as well as the change in market sentiment to a slightly less pessimistic outlook, may also reflect the market’s belief that economic recovery policies from central banks and governments have slowed down the decline in demand and even improved the chances for an economic upturn and, consequently, higher oil demand, later this year, the EIA said.
Separately, the EIA said it anticipates OPEC’s output to be 130,000 bpd less in 2009 from previous estimates to 28.78 million bpd.
Lower crude oil production by members of [Opec] has lowered world petroleum supplies, substantially offsetting reduced oil demand caused by the global economic recession, the EIA said.
Non-OPEC prodcution is seen averaging 49.77 million bpd this year, up 10,000 bpd from the EIA’s prior estimate.
The prospects of limited growth in non-Opec production and the expected start of economic recovery later this year, that should increase oil consumption and the demand for Opec oil, are the main factors supporting the upward price path for crude oil prices, the agency said.
US crude oil prices are predicted to average $53 a barrel in 2009 due to the global economic slowdown, and assuming there is an economic resurgence next year oil will raise to an average $63 next year, it said.
