The report, ‘Generating the Future: UK energy systems fit for 2050’, considers four possible energy scenarios that could meet the 2050 emissions reduction target, each of which demonstrates that energy demand reductions through a combination of increased efficiencies and behavioral change will be essential.
All the scenarios see fossil fuel prioritized for transport use in the future. ‘Level demand’ scenario will require over 80 new nuclear or CCS-equipped coal power plants before 2050, along with vast increases in all types of renewables, to meet a huge increase in electricity demand from about 42GW to 127GW, largely to replace fossil fuels used for low-grade heating.
“Building new power stations on this scale is probably only achievable by monopolizing most of the national wealth and resources,” the report says.
Two of the scenarios assume a demand reduction of around 28%, mostly by reducing heat loss from buildings and hence the demand for space heating. One scenario requires transport to be 80% electrified while other does the opposite, channeling all the available fossil fuel into transport and electrifying heating systems using heat pumps and resistive heating.
There will still not be enough fossil fuel to meet demand and significant electrification of transport will still be needed. However, both these scenarios are more practical than ‘Level demand’ scenario, needing around 40 new nuclear or CCS-equipped power plants to be built (these could be fueled by coal, biomass or gas).
The ‘High demand’ scenario reduces overall demand by 46%, again by improving buildings to reduce the need for low grade heating, which is almost completely electrified to conserve fossil fuels for transport. This will enable the electricity system to remain about the same size as it is currently with about 20 new nuclear or CCS-equipped power stations being required.
However, nearly 58% of this scenario’s electricity will be supplied by intermittent sources, well beyond the limits of what has been achieved before, RAE said.
Dame Ion, chair of the academy’s energy scenarios working group, said: “The scale of the challenge is obvious when you look at DECC’s UK energy flow chart for 2007. Most of our energy is still supplied by fossil fuels. If we are to cut emissions by 80%, most of the fossil fuels will have to be replaced by nuclear power and renewables such as wind, solar, marine or biomass.
“Whatever happens in the future, we need to recognize that the changes required to the UK energy system required in order to meet the 2050 emissions reduction targets are so substantial that they will inevitably involve significant rises in energy cost to end users.”
